South Africa’s agricultural sector — long a backbone of rural livelihoods, jobs and export earnings — finds itself in the grip of what many in the industry now describe as the most devastating livestock crisis in living memory. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), a highly contagious viral livestock disease, has surged with unprecedented force, decimating cattle herds, disrupting meat and dairy supply chains, and costing our economy billions. Yet what should be a manageable biosecurity threat has spiralled into an avoidable disaster — laid bare by policy failures, institutional collapse and a vaccination vacuum.
The impact of the ongoing outbreak on the beef and dairy sectors is indeed profound and can be supported with credible figures. According to the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), the loss in output for the beef and dairy sectors due to the outbreak is quantified in hundreds of millions of rand. Specifically, estimates suggest that the beef sector alone may have sustained losses exceeding R800 million in export revenues across several waves of the outbreak.
Furthermore, independent analyses indicate that when considering not just export losses but also diminished production capacity and depreciation in market value, the cumulative economic losses could reach into the billions. For instance, if we take into account the increased food prices for South African consumers and the overall strain on supply chains, the economic ramifications could be substantial.
Various economic studies and reports from agricultural economists reinforce this view. For instance, a report from the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the agricultural sector has seen a notable increase in food inflation, which can be traced back to reduced agricultural outputs due to this outbreak.
These figures illustrate a broader impact on the economy, highlighting the interconnectedness of agricultural performance and consumer costs.
Exports, once a prized pillar of our livestock economy, are reeling. Key markets — including China and several regional partners — remain closed or restricted to South African red meat, directly translating into economic haemorrhage for producers. In practical terms, this means fewer jobs on farms and in feedlots, weaker rural economies, and diminishing tax bases in provinces already struggling with unemployment.
But perhaps the most egregious failure lies in the collapse of the very institution created to safeguard animal health. Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP), established in 1908 as South Africa’s premier veterinary vaccine producer, has effectively fallen off the map. The state-owned enterprise cannot manufacture critical FMD vaccines at scale, leaving the country dependent on imports and belated emergency efforts to secure doses from abroad.
This institutional failure did not happen overnight. Years of under-investment, weak governance, leadership instability and regulatory inertia have crippled OBP’s capacity to produce vaccines that were once South Africa’s first line of defence. Today, farmers report mass cattle losses, forced culls and euthanasia, and quarantines that make normal production impossible — all against the backdrop of limited vaccine availability and unclear policy direction.
A fundamental rethink is overdue.
The government’s recent shift to an “FMD-free with vaccination” strategy and its ambition to vaccinate the entire national herd are necessary steps, but they fall short without urgent structural reform. Here are pragmatic recommendations that must guide our policymakers if we are to salvage the livestock sector and prevent future crises of this magnitude:
1. Rescue Vaccine Production Capacity
South Africa must restore vaccine sovereignty. This means recapitalising and restructuring OBP — or establishing a new, independent public-private veterinary vaccine manufacturer — capable of producing FMD and other livestock vaccines at scale, with modern infrastructure and Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) accreditation.
2. Open the Market to Private Vaccine Provision
Current law restricts FMD vaccine production and distribution to the state — a bottleneck that has clearly handicapped the response. Clear legislative reform is needed to allow accredited private sector producers to participate. This will expand supply, drive innovation, and reduce reliance on imports.
3. Compulsory and Strategic Vaccination
Vaccination campaigns must move beyond crisis reaction to proactive prevention. This includes mandatory vaccination in high-risk zones, backed by compensation and support for smallholder and commercial farmers alike. Targeted, traceable vaccination zones can allow phased reopening of export markets and restore international confidence in our FMD status.
4. Strengthen Veterinary Services and Biosecurity Enforcement
South Africa’s veterinary system is buckling under pressure. We need more vets, inspectors, and biosecurity officers, deployed in risk hotspots. This must be paired with robust livestock identification and movement tracking systems to contain spread and prevent illegal movements that fuel outbreaks.
5. Financial Support and Insurance Mechanisms
Farmers bearing the brunt of FMD need relief. The government must explore compensation schemes, insurance options and economic buffers that prevent ranchers and feedlots from collapsing under the weight of quarantines and export shutdowns. A flourishing livestock sector sustains rural economies, protects jobs and underpins national food security.
FMD will not be eradicated overnight — it will take sustained commitment and cooperation across government, industry and research. But the alternative is economic decay and further erosion of confidence in South Africa’s agricultural brand. What we have witnessed over the past two years is not merely a disease outbreak — it is a systemic failure of policy, preparedness and institutional leadership. We cannot afford to repeat these mistakes.
Our livestock farmers feed the nation and earn foreign exchange — they deserve a strategy as robust and resilient as the animals they raise.
Dr Thulasizwe Mkhabela is a Director and Senior Researcher at Outcome Mapping (thula@outcomemapping.co.za; thulasizwe.mkhabela@gmail.com). He is alsoan Honorary Research Fellow with the African Centre for Food Security at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (MkhabelaT1@ukzn.ac.za) and an independent agricultural researcher and policy analyst with extensive experience in South African and African agricultural & development issues.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article is solely that of authour, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Mzansi Agriculture Talk, their employers, or other associated parties.
