Real South African gross domestic product (GDP) weakened by 0,3% in the third quarter (July–September) of 2024.
Stats SA says that the agriculture industry was the main drag on growth on the production (supply) side of the economy, with transport, trade and government services also contributing to the slowdown.
On the expenditure (demand) side, there was a decline in imports, exports and government consumption.
Agriculture recorded its second consecutive decline, falling by 28,8% in the third quarter. It was the largest negative contributor, pulling GDP growth down by 0,7 of a percentage point (Figure 1).
Stats SA acknowledges that the industry experienced a rough quarter as drought plagued the production of field crops such as maize, soya beans, wheat and sunflower. Adverse weather conditions also hindered the production of subtropical fruits, deciduous fruits and vegetables in parts of the country.
Agri SA said it has noted a significant contraction of 28,8% quarter-on-quarter in the agricultural GDP as reported by Stats SA. This contributed -0,7 of a percentage point to the negative national GDP growth.
“At this stage, said Kulani Siweya, AgriSA chief economist, the data calls for further analysis but we are aware that drought plagued the production of field crops such as maize, soya beans, wheat and sunflower. “Adverse weather conditions also hindered the production of subtropical fruits, deciduous fruits and vegetables in parts of the country,” he said.
Siwela added that looking ahead, “it is vital that we enhance logistical efficiency, retain our current markets, and explore new export opportunities, particularly within BRICS+ countries. We believe that, with the right policies and support, South African agriculture can lead in driving inclusive growth and job creation.”
The broader economic environment remains complex, influenced by global factors such as geopolitical tensions, the ongoing war in Ukraine, inflation, and domestic challenges including infrastructure issues, rural decay, and high energy costs.
Johann Kotzé, AgriSA chief executive officer (CEO) says that as the year draws to a close, “we start to reflect on the trends that shaped our business environment. Thus far, what made 2024’s challenges unique was the combination of farm-level profitability amid a changing global order that is increasingly regionalised and protectionist in its trade positioning. The increasing emphasis on sustainable farming and climate adaptation is also spurring industries to reflect on the future of their market priorities.”
As the country navigates this dynamic landscape, AgriSA emphasises the importance of fostering a stable and conducive environment for agriculture to thrive, driving market-oriented growth and creating inclusive opportunities across the sector.
