Market Synopsis

Agri Market Synopsis Week 10

Global Consumption of Cotton on the rise
Global consumption of cotton is expected to grow by 4.1% at a long-term average rate of 1.7%. In January 2021, Cotton SA estimated for the 2020/21 production year cotton crop of 105 515 lint bales, 21% less than the previous year. China’s 2021/22 imports were forecast at 11.0 million bales while the United States production was up by 17% to 17.5 million bales – USDA, Cotton World Markets and Trade

Crops Estimate Committee Summer field crops – 2021
“The size of the expected commercial maize crop has been set at 15,922 mill.tons, which is 0,46% or 72 830 tons more than the previous forecast of 15,849 mill. tons. The revised area estimate for maize is 2,755 mill. ha, while the expected yield is 5,78 t/ha. The estimated maize crop is 4% bigger than the 2020 crop. The three main maize producing areas, namely the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West provinces are expected to produce 84% of the 2021 crop.

The revised area estimate for white maize is 1,692 mill. ha and for yellow maize the area estimate is 1,063 mill. ha. The production forecast of white maize is 8,796 mill. tons, which is 0,04% or 3 470 tons less than the 8,799 mill. tons of the previous forecast. The yield for white maize is 5,20 t/ha. In the case of yellow maize the production forecast is 7,126 mill. tons, which is 1,08% or 76 300 tons more than the 7,050 mill. tons of the previous forecast. The yield for yellow maize is 6,70 t/ha.

Please note that information from the objective yield survey by the ARC for the Mpumalanga province will be available in April 2021; and for the Free State and North West provinces in May 2021. The current yield figures are mainly obtained from producers in the different provinces.

Sunflower seed: The production forecast for sunflower seed is 696 290 tons, which is 2,34% or 16 650 tons less than the previous forecast of 712 940 tons. The revised area estimate for sunflower seed is 477 800 ha, while the expected yield is 1,46 t/ha.

Other crops: The production forecast for soybeans increased by 6,62% or 107 250 tons to 1,728 mill. tons. The revised estimated area planted to soybeans is 827 100 ha and the expected yield is 2,09 t/ha.

The expected groundnut crop has been set at 57 900 tons, which is 0,90% or 525 tons less than the previous forecast of 58 425 tons. For groundnuts, the area estimate is 38 550 ha, with an expected yield of 1,50 t/ha.

The production forecast for sorghum is 187 670 tons, which is 10,01% or 17 080 tons more than the 170 590 tons of the previous forecast. The revised area estimate for sorghum is 49 200 ha and the expected yield is 3,81 t/ha.

In the case of dry beans, the production forecast is 62 117 tons. The revised area estimate of dry beans is 48 890 ha, with an expected yield of 1,27 t/ha.” – DALRRD, Crops Estimate Committee.

Table Grapes
‘The two earliest regions are already packed. A few producers in the Olifants region are still packing the last few thousand cartons while the Berg and Hex regions continue to pack. Northern Provinces, a new volume record of 7.8 million cartons was reached. Orange River, a better-than-expected intake of 18.3 million cartons was achieved despite the rains in early January. Olifants River, the region has surpassed the 4th crop estimate and stands at 4.3 million cartons. The good quality and good grain size under favorable harvest conditions continue. Packed cultivars include Crimson and Allison.” – South African Tables Grapes Industry (SATI).

Livestock “On the domestic market, the weekly trend in prices has been sideways to lower across the livestock complex during midmonth. In the weaner market, weekly weaner prices fell by 1.3% w/w but still 22% higher y/y. The current contract class A lamb and mutton prices are however up by 9.7% and 2.4% respectively. Pork and bacon prices were sharply higher by 27% and 22%.” Paul Makube, FNB Agri Weekly.

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