Market Synopsis

Agri Market Synopsis Week 24

TOP TRENDS: “Inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages for May 2021 was recorded at 6.7%, with an increasing trend observed from February 2021 and representing the highest level of food inflation since July 2017” – BFAP, Brief on May 2021 Stats SA food inflation

FORELLE: “Forelle Inspections passed for exports YTD are down by 17% compared to the previous season. Inspection volumes YTD week 24 in inspection regions EGVV and Ceres are down 23% and 13% respectively compared to the 2020 season. Vermont Beauty estimates are down by 15% compared to the 2020 season. Inspection region Ceres YTD week 24 up by 11% year- on-year” – Xolela Dlikilili, Hortgro

MEAT: “The meat inflation for May 2021 surprised on the upside and jumped 8.5% y/y from 7.1% in April and has remained outside the upper end of the SARB target for eight consecutive months (figure A). The monthly meat inflation however slowed to 1.2% m/m from 1.4% recorded during April 2021. A further drilldown on the meat complex by type shows sharp gains for chuck, T-bone, and sirloin in the beef category with increases of 22%, 21%, and 20% respectively y/y, while rump steak and fillet fell by 5% and 12% respectively y/y. For mutton and lamb, the biggest gainers were stew and neck with increases of 33% and 7% respectively y/y. In the pork category, the price of chops rose sharply by 14% y/y while fillet posted a corresponding decrease of 15% y/y” – Paul Makube, FNB Agri Weekly 

MILK: “The cumulative April 2021 total milk supply was 14,6% less than in 2020 and 12,8% less than in 2019. The factors contributing to this phenomenon are a mixture of growth in exports and lower unprocessed milk production. Compared to 2020, exports had grown by 10,4% and 26,2%, respectively, over the same period in 2020 and 2019, and unprocessed milk production declined (-3,65%) for the first four months of 2021. Imports during the first four months of 2021 were only 2,5% higher than in 2020” MPO, Milk Bulletin 

GRAINS: “In the domestic 2021/22 maize marketing season, by week 23-2021 about 6.11 million tons or 37% of the 2021/22 marketing season’s maize crop (16.18 million tons) had been delivered. As at week 22- 2021, total exports were at 123 062 tons. By week 23-2021, cumulative domestic oilseed deliveries for the 2021/22 marketing season were at 1.78 million tons of soya beans and 474 675 tons of sunflower seed. Wheat imports for week 22-2021 stand at a total of 28 096 tons, all from Australia. As at week 22-2021, cumulative imports were at 1.046 million tons” – Brain Mahumani, Standard Bank Bi-Weekly 

FUEL: “Between May 2020 and May 2021 petrol and diesel prices increased by 37.6% from R12.52/litre to R17.23/liter and 30.5% (from R11.08/litre to R14.46/litre), respectively. Crude oil prices in US dollar terms increased by 106% from US$33.15/barrel to US$68.30/barrel, with a 22.5% appreciation of the Rand (R18.11/$ to R14.04/$). These fluctuations in South Africa’s fuel prices have been largely driven by higher oil prices – NAMC, Input Cost Monitor 

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